First published by The National
Wales isn’t Scotland, Scotland isn’t Wales. There are many structural, cultural and political differences between the two nations, and then of course there are great similarities. One thing which is quite different though is that in Wales support for independence is surging while in Scotland it has been all-but static for a decade. What’s the difference? What can we learn?
The similarities are obvious. Both Wales and Scotland are nations of the United Kingdom of fairly similar sizes (Wales 3.2 million, Scotland 5.4). Both therefore have their underlying political culture and certainly their media and their economic programme largely set by London. Both have large amounts of cross border ‘immigration’ from England.
Both have an ancient historical and political identity. At least since the Second World War, both voted very similarly (solid Labour, minorities of Tories and independence support). Both were aggressively deindustrialised in the 1980s and the loss of heavy industry devastated communities. Both gained devolution in the late 1990s.
But the differences are substantial. Wales was unquestionably colonised where there is a debate about whether Scotland was colonised or just sold out by our ruling class. While there has always been a strand of independence support in Wales it was often much more marginal than in Scotland, as can be seen in the very different degrees of enthusiasm shown in the devolution referendums.
There wasn’t quite the same move in Wales to convert independence from a cultural project to a political one. This is both enhanced and exacerbated by language; Wales has a large indigenous language-speaking community and so Plaid Cymru has often been seen as ‘the party of the Welsh speaker’ in a way that the SNP was never really seen as ‘a party of the Gaelic speaker’.
Wales has weaknesses in comparison to Scotland. It is smaller and has less access to natural resources and land and in particular does not quite have Scotland’s energy generating capacity. Wales did not have its institutions protected like the legal system, church and education system were protected in Scotland. It barely has an autonomous media at all.
Being so close to England’s population centre, its immigration is much more transactional – second holiday homes, buy-to-let, people moving simply because the price of housing is cheaper. You need to make a decision to move to Scotland; you can still commute into the south of England from Wales. It is forcing locals out of housing much more than in Scotland.
These context have generally meant one overwhelming thing; Wales has much less self-confidence as a nation than Scotland. You can feel it everywhere; if you go to Cardiff Central Station you’ll see almost every train is marked as an English destination. You’d imagine transport in Wales was only designed to get you out the country. Plaid Cymru has nothing of the swagger of the modern SNP.
Welsh independence has its dramas but it has not ‘fallen out with itself’
For all these reasons and more, Wales stuck with Labour longer than Scotland did. Where Scotland switched to the SNP nearly two decades ago, Wales did no more than flirt with Plaid, effectively putting it in as an junior almost-coalition partner (it wasn’t a coalition, it was a cooperation agreement and Plaid politicians didn’t take up office).
I recently spoke at a large All Under One Banner rally in Swansea beside a Welsh Labour for Independence speaker. She pointed out that the party in Wales with the most pro-independence voters isn’t Plaid but Labour. Welsh Labour did not define itself as being anti-independence like Scottish Labour. Well, until Starmerites tried to cheat Vaughan Gething into power through means that backfired and forced him to resign over corruption.
The last time I was down was last year and there was a sense of stagnation among independence supporters. There had been a substantial surge during the Boris Johnstone years which took support for independence from roughly 20 per cent to roughly 30 (sometimes a bit more) – but it rather stuck there. Now polling is putting Wales at 41 per cent. That is a very big surge, something Scotland is not seeing. What is the difference?
Let me suggest three main factors. First of all, despite there being all the same petty internal politics you find everywhere there is politics, Welsh independence has remained united where the Scottish movement is fragmented. No-one in the Welsh independence movement bad mouths All Under One Banner Wales and Plaid and labour for Indy put up speakers. The main independence-supporting political party actively works with Yes Cymru and sees it as an asset. Welsh independence has its dramas but it has not ‘fallen out with itself’.
Second, because Plaid was not in power and so a ‘show, don’t tell’ strategy wasn’t really available to them, they have developed a much more effective political strategy. I am biased because I advised Plaid’s previous leadership on how to develop one and they listened to a lot of what I said. They aren’t waiting for the public to work things out for themselves, they do things like setting up official commissions to deal with the currency question and develop post-independence policy agendas.
There does still seem to be a lesson in this, a lesson that is hardly a surprising one in Britain in 2025 – being part of the establishment, keeping your head down and not trying to make a fuss isn’t winning anyone any friends
But my guess is that the biggest factor is simply that in Wales, independence is seen as a challenge to the existing order much more than in Scotland. Plaid is an outsider party and Labour for Indy is a grassroots affair obviously without leadership support. The SNP has sought to present itself much more as ‘an establishment in waiting’.
Quite openly, most senior people in the SNP say their strategy is roughly to be so respectable as a party of government that remaining opposition to independence will melt away rationally. Plaid remains a more radical party which presents itself as a kick to the system, not as its most qualified manager. I doubt the SNP is seen as an alternative to the existing order now.
I haven’t been able to speak to anyone in Wales since this poll and have only seen the headlines. It appears that the pattern is very similar to Scotland in terms of demographics (support increases steadily down the age groups) but I can see no data on the geography of the vote.
South Wales is mainly English-speaking, was heavily deindustrialised and remained strongly Labour even at last year’s election. West Wales is the cultural and linguistic heart of Welsh-Wales but wasn’t deindustrialised in the same way. Is this a surge the former Labour areas catching up, even more support coming from Welsh-speaking areas, or is it a consistent rise across the country?
But there does still seem to be a lesson in this, a lesson that is hardly a surprising one in Britain in 2025 – being part of the establishment, keeping your head down and not trying to make a fuss isn’t winning anyone any friends. It is failing Starmer badly and it is probably doing the same for support for independence in Scotland.
This Wales poll suggests that perhaps we would do well to put our comb away and mess up our hair a little bit. If you’d told me two years ago that Wales would be closing in fast on Scottish levels of independence support I’d have been surprised. Looking at Scotland today and looking at Wales today, I amn’t. One way or another there are lessons to learn here.