First published by The National
Scottish independence is an inherently rebellious act and the public is in the mood for rebellion. This is really important. If we don’t get our act together on the independence side then they are going to seek their rebellion elsewhere, and the elsewhere they are seeking it is with Reform and the far right.
If the independence movement and the SNP don’t start offering an outlet for people’s frustrations then we will lose the chance to gain and sustain momentum and, every bit as bad, we will instead be facing a domestic politics with a significant far-right element for the foreseeable future.
This is because centrism is failing everywhere. From Kamala Harris’s loss to Keir Starmer’s underwhelming performance and rapid unpopularity to the string of centrist parties across Europe that have been decimated electorally, there is a growing consensus that the centrist liberal order which has dominated Western politics for five decades has reached its end.
In Scotland we have no political parties channelling people’s frustration with the established order, but we do have independence. Its rebellious nature is our best chance of stymying the right, but it cannot be just any kind of independence. Safety and small-c conservatism and ‘don’t scare the horses’ is the problem, not the solution.
There is a consensus emerging on why centrism is failing, though it has some different emphases. For some observers the issue is a straightforward material one. Let me give you two statistics which are really central to Trump’s victory. First, blue collar workers in the US have not had a real terms increase in their pay since the Nixon administration. Second, two thirds of men between 18 and 30 in the US agree with the statement ‘no-one really knows me’ and a quarter of them report not having a single close friend.
This is the result of an economic order which creates rampant inequality and promotes ‘isolated consumption’ – lonely people spend more money than happy ones. People who emphasise the material conditions believe that these realities are the driver of a desire to lash out and ‘break something’.
Others believe that this is only the starting point and it is the way these feelings and experiences are narrated to an audience through a closed media environment dominated by the far right which is the decisive factor.
Yet others identify material conditions as the starting point but see political parties’ abandonment of interest in working class communities in favour of the interests of an educated elite and middle class identity politics a signs of contempt which alienated those voters who want to punish those parties.
When a 2016 Trump voter can tell a journalist that he knows Trump was lying to his community about reopening a local coal mine but that he’d rather vote for the person who takes time out from their day to lie to him rather than treat him with disinterested contempt he felt the Clinton campaign had, the problem is hard to miss.
Independence was an outlet for the sense that many people on lower incomes had that the British economy just wasn’t working for them
The truth is that the death of centrism it is due to all these things, combined with a sense that everything is getting worse and a pervasive feeling that politics has become an insider game played by a professional class in their own interests. It is a genuinely toxic cocktail. And, worst of all, all of these things are absolutely true.
When John Swinney led the SNP to electoral setback in 2003, a group of people in the party concluded that it needed to look a bit more ‘establishment’ to get into power. I think they were probably right. But that is not how the SNP went from ‘power’ to ‘unprecedented overall majority’. That was because of the swagger, confidence and sheer chutzpah of the first minority term.
The SNP administration was written off as lame duck but, through force of will, bent the parliament to its needs and was seen to shake up a self-satisfied Labour-dominated political order. People reward courage.
That courage was lost in the early months of the independence referendum campaign with the SNP’s messaging focussing on ‘nothing will change but you’ll be £500 better off’. Luckily a broad grassroots movement then injected the energy, ideas, excitement and sense of rebellion that took us nearly to success. In the aftermath the SNP was rewarded for riding that wave of enthusiasm and hope.
But gradually it began to become too comfortable being part of the establishment. Nicola Sturgeon continued to present a confident, swaggering, courageous government, but the delivery didn’t match. From policies that were bottled (like Council Tax reform) to photographs of the leader hugging Alastair Campbell (of all people), gradually the SNP became, well, too safe.
Independence was an outlet for the sense that many people on lower incomes had that the British economy just wasn’t working for them. By the time of the Growth Commission, it had started to sound like independence wouldn’t work for them either.
After all, the real effect of the Growth Commission was to ‘defang’ independence, to make it acceptable to the Scottish establishment in the belief that this would detoxify the issue and gradually make it consensual. Unfortunately it achieved nothing much in terms of winning over the establishment to independence but was so insipid that gradually the wider excitement about independence faded.
Independence could offer a positive, inclusive, hate-free rebellion, but for most people independence seems to be a dead issue
The SNP is still stuck in that loop. Whatever you think of John Swinney and his administration, I defy you to read his St Andrew’s Day speech setting out his vision and not yawn. It is all focussed on ‘bringing people closer to their communities’, whatever that means. A heavyweight counter to the simple allure of Nigel Farage and Reform it is not.
The SNP is not offering that outlet and Reform is. Independence could take that role and, in a crucial way, offer a positive, inclusive, hate-free rebellion, but for most people independence seems to be a dead issue. My non-political friends basically stopped talking about it in 2018.
Not only is the rise of Reform going to be a big shock to Scottish politics, it will have electoral consequences people don’t expect. There will be enormous pressure for list seats in 2026 and if the big parties fight over the majority of them there might only be one seat left per list for smaller parties. If Reform ended up one point ahead of the Greens in every list, it is conceivable the Greens could be wiped out. That removes the chance of any pro-independence majority and all-but hobbles the SNP for five years.
So this raises a challenge for three different groups in Scotland. To the SNP, do you really believe that, almost alone in Europe, you can make centrism popular? Or are you willing to adopt the kinds of bold policies that signal to ordinary people that you’re on their side against the big, powerful vested interests that shape their lives? Common Weal has no shortage of these policies if you are.
To the independence movement, are we capable of becoming a force that channels the anger and frustration of the large majority of people in Scotland who live on less than or little more than the average wage? We certainly can’t win independence if we don’t, so why are we failing to do this?
And to what is left of the unionist left and centre left; you must have realised that the Starmer project is the cause of and not the solution to the rise of the far right. I suspect that, in private, many of you would agree that independence is technically the best chance to see off this rising. So what is more important to you? Protecting the union or preventing the establishment of a far right politics in Scotland which in time might morph into something even worse?
In the absence of any kind of party that would take serious, radical action on economic inequality, unaffordable housing and deteriorating conditions in the workforce, independence is very much the best chance we have of preventing a far-right future. In fact, if there is any other realistic option at all I can’t see what it is.
Either we learn from what is happening around the world and in the lower income communities in Scotland where Reform is taking hold, or we cross our fingers like the US Democrats did. It didn’t work out for them, it won’t work out for us. We must set a new course and, if we don’t, we have reason to be afraid of the consequences.